How Trump Trumped Harris

It was an election result that blindsided many. All the major polls in the weeks leading to the election day had it as a dead heat or within the margin of error one way or the other. And yet, in the end, as US elections go - it wasn’t even close. Donald Trump won not only 7 out of 7 of the so-called swing states. He won the popular vote by almost 5 million and led the Republican party to winning both the Senate and Congressional races. 

There are thousands of reasons why an election is won or lost. This week's 52INSIGHTS takes a look at the big cultural outtakes that might go some way to explaining how such an astonishing result could arise. 

“With Kamala only having just over 100 days to campaign, she created such a large feeling of hope for people. This is only my second election that I have been able to vote in and the feeling of waking up yesterday seeing the result was devastating.” - Rachel - 25 (Massachusetts)

INFLUENCE, KLOUT, CELEBRITY AND THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA 

Kamala Harris was supported and endorsed by some of the very biggest names in the world. Music superstars Beyoncé, Charli XcX, Billie Eilish, Lady Gaga, JLO, Ariana Grande and perhaps thought to be the most influential of all, Taylor Swift - who announced her support through a humorous Instagram post, a direct retort to JD Vance (Trump’s Vice Presidential running mate) by signing off as a “Childless Cat Lady” to her 283M Instagram followers. 

But it wasn’t just female pop stars driving a female voter base; male musicians as diverse as Eminem, Bruce Springsteen, Bad Bunny and Lil Nas X supported her. The biggest names in the NBA; Steph Curry and LeBron James and just about every A-list Hollywood actor alive and working today rowed in to lend support to her campaign. Not to mention long-established, traditional publications with huge readerships like Vogue, Rolling Stone, The New York Times, The Economist and The Atlantic. As well as hundreds of respected activists, economists and academics.

Trump, by contrast, was supported by a group who could kindly be described as celebrities whose glory years are long behind them; Billy Ray Cyrus, Kid Rock, Hulk Hogan, along with controversial figures like Kanye West and Russell Brand, and publications like The New York Post and Maxim. 

These two very different lists are set up side by side, not for the sake of antagonism but to show the sheer scale and media reach that this social klout would have afforded Harris over Trump. But a megaphone is no use when it is pointed in the wrong direction. 

It seems the trump card in Trump’s strategy was the targeting of young males. Something that, for his campaign effort, judging by the data, was extremely effective. That demographic turned out in record numbers and voted overwhelmingly Republican. 

THE BRO VOTE 

Much has been made of the so-called ‘bro vote’. Trump’s celebrity support base was supplemented by a who’s who of the ‘manosphere’ (a diverse collection of websites, blogs, and online forums promoting masculinity, misogyny, and opposition to feminism.) We have written before about the ever-widening chasm between young males skewing further to the right and females further to the left on the political spectrum. 

As reported in Vice, Trump’s 18-year-old son Barron Trump was rumoured to be central to the strategy of targeting the youth male vote through online creators in the “bro right”. The content Trump made with these creators like Adin Ross, the Nelk Boys, and Theo Von in the run-up to the election was viewed hundreds of millions of times, primarily by that key demographic of 18- to 30-year-old men.

CRYPTO BROS 

Synonymous with online bro culture is also Crypto. A community that thrives on forums, social media, and live chats, often marked by a culture of memes, hype cycles, and debates over regulation, security, and the future of money.

Crypto overwhelmingly over-indexes against young males with 60% of investors being 18-35 and 70% being men. 

The Republican political program stated “Republicans will end Democrats’ unlawful and unAmerican crypto crackdown and oppose the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency. We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin, and ensure every American has the right to self-custody of their Digital Assets, and transact free from Government Surveillance and Control.” 

Trump, although seeming to be light on detail and in-depth understanding of crypto, communicated the same message in his unmistakable style - saying he would make the US “the Bitcoin superpower of the world”. 

It didn’t take long for Trump to repay his young male voters, who laughed all the way to the Crypto exchange when Bitcoin hit an all-time high the day after Trump’s victory.

ELON, WHO ELSE? 

(We’ve written about Musk’s political shenanigans already this year).

Perhaps the biggest crypto bro of them all, the world’s wealthiest person, X (formerly Twitter) owner Elon Musk was the biggest financial winner of the night. The share price of Tesla blasted off like a SpaceX rocket, ahead of touted trade tariffs on Chinese and German electric vehicles. It is estimated that Musk added $15 billion to his net paper worth on the back of the election result. Musk was Trump’s single biggest donor, setting up the PAC and funding the Republican campaign to the tune of $118 million - mere pennies to him but netting an eye-watering return on his investment. 

But it wasn’t just the money, Harris and the Democrats outspent Trump 2:1. Arguably, Musk’s greatest gift to Trump was to turbocharge the MAGA message through his “everything App”, social media platform X. Since acquiring the platform for $44Billion in 2023, Musk has bent the algorithm to his will and returned many of its most controversial banned users (including Trump, Andrew Tate and others) and has used it as a geopolitical weapon and platform for his own ideological message.

A large percentage of his tweets amplify false or misleading information, and the people who Musk interacts with on the platform often have a history of spreading misinformation. Musk’s AI image generator, Grok, has also become one of the most prominent sources of political deepfakes that have permeated the election. 

“I don’t have it [X], honestly just because I’ve never felt the need for it but also I feel it’s not a reliable source of information” - Emma D (19) - Connecticut 

Amazing insights from the Reuters and Ipsos exit poll data are already coming through showing a correlation with misinformed views and voting Republican. For example, if you believed, as propagated by Musk and Trump, that violent crimes are at an all-time high in US cities (which they definitively are not) then you are more likely to vote Republican. 

The lesson from this is clear. The facts don’t matter. Perception is the reality when it comes to voting. 

“Honestly, I plan on deleting X in the very near future and I've been staying off of it since the election.” - Emma Mc (22) - Massachusetts

PODCASTERS 

Mind-boggling numbers have emerged around traditional ad spend. As Mark Ritson revealed: “The two candidates have spent more than a billion dollars on TV advertising. Not advertising. TV advertising. The first and most powerful explanation was that “it works” and both parties know it works”. 

But we also know how incredibly effective podcasts were to the Trump effort. While TV has reach and can build frequency, podcasts are an entirely different medium. In the week before the election, Trump appeared on the Joe Rogan Experience, the most-listened-to podcast in the world. Rogan has 14.5 million Spotify followers and 17.5 million YouTube subscribers - overwhelmingly appealing to a male audience.

The interview racked up an astonishing 26 million views in the first 24 hours on YouTube alone. But it’s not just the numbers; podcasts are also a unique medium in that they afford a long-form platform to discuss topics as varied as economic policy to the existence of extraterrestrial life. In his meandering thre-hour (!) interview, Trump even spoke of his admiration for MMA fighters - something that no doubt appealed to many of his potential male supporters. 

Trump’s appearance was followed days later by his running mate JD Vance and then the day before the election by his no.1 supporter Elon Musk. But it wasn’t just Joe Rogan. Trump appeared on a whole host of Podcasts; This Past Weekend with Theo Von, Impaulsive with Logan Paul, Bussin' With The Boys and The Lex Fridman Podcast to name a few, all with huge male listenerships. 

And while much was made of Harris’s appearance on the “Call her Daddy” podcast, perhaps even more was made on her snub of the Joe Rogan invite, citing that she did not want to travel to Austin Texas where he records. 

Rogan was once an ardent and vocal supporter of liberal issues like reproductive rights, higher taxation and is on the record as saying “he never voted right wing in his life” - an astonishing turn of events to now see him help tip the scales in favour of a second Trump presidency.

CONCLUSION 

In the end, all of the elements that have been discussed are only contributing factors, none in isolation were decisive. Musk’s turbocharging of the X platform behind Trump, the Bro-Vote, podcasts over traditional media - none of this goes to explain the increase in vote share for Trump among female, Black, Latino and youth demographics. 

Democracy, the American electorate was told, was on the ballot. But as Dan Rosenheck (Data analyst for the Economist) put it - “it was a widespread, national, consistent repudiation of four years of the Biden administration, in all parts of the country that was seen in all demographic groups”.

BRAND TAKEOUTS 

Unpalatable as it may be to take lessons from some of the above - there are new universal truths that are undeniable to people in the wider communications industry. 

Deeply understanding your audience; their interests, modes of communication, motivating factors and heroes, no matter how fringe or alien they may seem, remains the cornerstone of any campaign. 

The power of podcasts is undeniable. They are unique in their format in that they are one of the truly remaining long-form mediums in a world dominated by soundbite clips on news media, 30-second TV spots and short-form video content on YouTube, Instagram and TikTok.