Spend in the Battle of the Festive Ads to Reach £10.5bn

Advertisers are expected to spend a record £10.5bn during the festive season, according to new data released by the Advertising Association (AA) and WARC. This marks a 7.8% increase from last year’s spend of £9.7bn and the investment highlights advertising’s vital role to support businesses, jobs and the economy during the Christmas period. 

New research from Kantar shows positive sentiment towards Christmas ads is the highest since measurement began, with 59% of people saying they ‘love’ Christmas TV ads, up from 51% in 2023. While 48% of consumers last year were ‘really looking forward to seeing Christmas ads on TV’, this figure has now lifted to 56%.

The AA/WARC adspend figures show spend for the Q4 season will reach record levels, with online media channels expecting to see a boost including online display (which comprises social media spend) at 15.8%, online radio at 8.8% and broadcaster video on demand (BVOD) at 7.8%. In towns and high streets, out of home advertising is expected to see an 8.1% rise in spend and cinema is up 5.1%, in line with new seasonal hits, Paddington in Peru, Wicked and Gladiator 2.

Many of the UK’s biggest brands including John Lewis, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Waitrose, Marks & Spencer and Boots are releasing blockbuster Christmas ads again this year, alongside global brands such as Amazon, Disney and Coca-Cola. In 2023, campaigns by Aldi, featuring Kevin the Carrot, and Coca-Cola were broadly recognised as the most effective advertising work of the festive season(1). Earlier this month, new analysis by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) of the winners of its Effectiveness Awards highlighted three consistent ingredients for Christmas advertising success – fame, emotion and TV – to deliver a greater market share for the advertiser(2).

Matt Bourn, director of communications, Advertising Association, said, “The final quarter of the year is a critical one for businesses, large and small, to promote their wares in a battle for customer attention. The investment we see here in this Christmas advertising spend is an investment in growth which supports jobs up and down the country. As ever, we will see the very best of advertising with all the creative flair that the UK advertising industry can bring to help businesses secure fame and success.”

Lynne Deason, head of creative excellence at Kantar, explained, “Advertisers really raised the bar last year, and the festive fervour we’re seeing now reflects that. When it comes to anticipating this year's campaigns, John Lewis remains the powerhouse with one in four people saying it’s the ad that they are most excited to watch. Last Christmas there was a ramp up in humorous campaigns, a great way to make content stick in our minds. Gone are the days when all brands try to beat John Lewis at their own game with an emotional rollercoaster. There are so many creative ways to entertain people with advertising and that’s what people love so much at this time of year– storytelling, music, humour, celebrities etc - combined with the joy and meaning of the Christmas spirit.”

James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting, WARC said, “Brands know that a well-crafted Christmas campaign can boost salience, anchor loyalty and drive impressive sales results to boot. It’s the time of year when media budgets swell, and creative teams pull out all the stops to deliver memorable messaging that resonates well beyond Boxing Day.

“While the Golden Quarter typically attracts elevated levels of advertiser investment for these reasons, the anticipated £760m rise in spend this year would be the largest increase on record if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 were excluded, with a total above £10.5bn yet another zenith for the UK’s market.”

AA/WARC Q4 2024 FORECAST FOR AD SPEND

*Note: Broadcaster VOD, digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio station websites are also included within online display and classified totals, so care should be taken to avoid double counting. Online radio includes targeted in-stream radio/audio advertising sold by UK commercial radio companies, together with online S&P inventory.

1)  As judged by Kantar and System1, source: Marketing Week, November 23, 2023

2) Source: Campaign, October 15, 2024