System1 Ranks the Christmas Ads with Strongest Sales Potential

The latest Test Your Ad data from System1 reveals the Christmas ads that have the highest sales potential —Aldi, Morrisons and ASDA take the top of the podium. Aldi’s latest Kevin the Carrot adventure also scored best on brand-building potential in System1’s testing based on emotional response data from consumers. Meanwhile, Coke’s new AI-version of “Holidays are Coming” performs exceptionally well by driving intense, positive emotions among viewers.

Every year System1 tests all the major Christmas ads with consumers using its Test Your Ad platform. The emotional response then informs the ads’ Star Rating (1-Star to 5.9-Stars), which predicts long-term market share gain, and Spike Rating, which has been shown to predict short-term sales uplift.

The Spike Rating evaluates an ad's ability to evoke intense emotions and make a lasting brand impression. The Spike Rating baseline is 1. Spike scores below 1 suggest limited or no short-term impact. Spike scores of 1.3 and above predict strong or exceptional activity.  

System1 research has concluded that brands that aim to do the long well are more likely to succeed on short-term metrics, but that the reverse approach is far less likely to drive long-term brand building. This year, the top 12 ads according to Spike Rating all hit the 5-Star mark. Typically only 1% of ads achieve 5-Stars, though much of the UK’s best brand-building work is released around Christmas.

Numerous factors are driving high marks for brand recognition and intense emotions.

• Branded assets. Many advertisers wisely put their distinctive assets in the spotlight early and often, like Coca-Cola with its signature red, trucks and glass bottles, Cadbury with plenty of purple and packaging and Lidl with its logo featured on shopping bags and merch.
• Fluent devices. Character fluent devices quickly signal brand. This year, Aldi once again featured Kevin the Carrot, while Very.co brought back its pink flamingos, as did Morrison’s with last year’s beloved singing gloves.
• Betweenness. Christmas ads do a great job of conveying connection between characters, like in ASDA’s spot featuring gnomes helping store employees decorate, Etsy’s with Waldo receiving a heartfelt gift and Sainsbury’s BFG enlisting support to collect a big Christmas feast.
• Melodic songs. Soundtracks can also deeply resonate with audiences to drive stronger feelings, as demonstrated by Amazon, Disney, Coke, Morrisons and Very.co.
• Cultural references. From Mission Impossible (Aldi) to Roald Dahl’s BFG (Sainsbury’s) to Indiana Jones (ASDA), there were plenty of cultural easter eggs dropped in this year’s adverts.

 Jon Evans, Chief Customer Officer, System1, said:

“Developing ads that drive immediate sales during the festive period and support long-term brand building is crucial, as many rely on a Christmas sales boost and want growth to continue well beyond December. Strong storytelling filled with characters, humour, music and distinctive assets are helping brands quickly signal who they are and elicit intense, positive emotions that drive both the short and the long.”

 The top 12 ads ranked by Spike Rating (short-term sales potential) have each reached the ‘Exceptional’ level. They include: 

1. Aldi – “Get into the Christmas Spirit with Kevin the Carrot” – 1.86

2. Morrisons – “Singing Gloves” – 1.77

3. ASDA – “The Gnome of Christmas” – 1.72

4. Coca-Cola – “Holidays are Coming” – 1.70

5. Sainsbury’s – “Phizz-whizzing” – 1.70

6. Lidl – “Lidl Presents: A Magical Christmas” – 1.70

7. Cadbury – “Secret Santa Delivery” – 1.69

8. Etsy – “Where’s Waldo” – 1.59

9. Disney – “The Boy & The Octopus” – 1.58

10. Amazon – “Midnight Opus” – 1.57

11. Coca-Cola – “The World Needs More Santas” – 1.56

12.Very.co.uk – “Let’s Make it Sparkle” – 1.55